If You Win 9 Out of 10 Quotes, You're Losing Money
A high close rate feels like success. It isn't. If you're winning 85%+ of your quotes, you're almost certainly underpriced — and here's how to test it without guessing.
Ben Rayner· TappaThe standard advice in trade business is: win more quotes, make more money. It's not wrong exactly, but it misses something important. A very high close rate — 85%, 90%, higher — isn't a sign that you're good at quoting. It's a sign you're underpriced.
What a 90% close rate actually tells you
Every quote you win that you shouldn't have — every job where you were the cheapest bidder when you didn't need to be — is a job done below market rate. You've agreed to work for less than someone else would have charged. Done enough times, this is a business that works very hard for a modest income. A healthy close rate for a profitable residential plumbing business sits between 55% and 70%. Competitive enough to keep the schedule full, not so low that you're pricing yourself out of the market. If you're winning 9 in 10, you're almost certainly leaving money in the other eight.
How to find your actual market rate without guessing
Raise your prices 10% on the next 20 quotes. Track your close rate. If it stays above 65%, you were underpriced — raise again. Keep going 5% at a time, 20 quotes at a time, until you start losing jobs you'd rather have won. That's the market rate for your work in your area. It takes six to eight weeks and costs nothing except the nerve to hold the higher number.
If your close rate drops below 50% after a price rise, you're either overpriced, or you're quoting into a market where factors other than price matter — presentation, response time, reputation. Both are worth examining separately.
The maths on losing a few jobs
Say you quote 10 jobs at $900 average and win 9. Revenue: $8,100. Raise to $1,000, win 7. Revenue: $7,000. Still down. Raise to $1,100, win 7. Revenue: $7,700. Win 8: $8,800. At some point you cross back over — and now you're generating the same revenue with fewer jobs and less stress. Fewer jobs means less van time, less quoting time, less admin. If you're currently at capacity and winning almost everything, raising prices is the only way to grow profit without working longer hours.
The customers you lose at a higher price
The customers who walk when you raise your prices are almost always the price shoppers — the ones who'll call three times before the job starts, dispute the invoice, and leave a review if something isn't perfect. Losing those jobs is not always a loss. The customers who choose you at a higher price chose you for a reason other than being the cheapest. They're easier to work with, faster to pay, and more likely to call again.
Practical note
Track close rate across every 20 quotes. It's the single most useful number in a trade business and most plumbers have no idea what theirs is. Once you know it, you can manage it deliberately instead of guessing at it.